# Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation This site has an agentic ask interface you may use to query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the following URL with the `ask` and `goal` query parameters: ``` GET https://101.warmersun.com/index.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is what the user is ultimately trying to achieve, the reason they need the answer. Sharing it helps GitBook give you a better, more relevant answer. A goal is most helpful when it describes the outcome the user wants rather than restating the question. For example, with `ask=how do I create an API token`, a goal like `automate deployments from our CI pipeline` lets GitBook tailor the answer to that use case. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. --- # Progress and Predictions An introductory Course to Exponential Progress, Emerging Technologies and Their Applications [Progress and Predictions Course ](http://warmer-sun.gitbook.io/progress-and-predictions/)ยฉ 2022 by [Tamas Simon ](https://www.warmersun.com/about-us#2)is licensed under [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/?ref=chooser-v1) # The Story of The Creator of Chess ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/chess.png) Have you heard the story of when the king (maharaja) wanted to reward the creator of chess, because he enjoyed the game so much? The story goes that all the inventor asked for was to put a single grain of wheat on the first square (1), two (2) on the next square, four (4) on the third square, eight (8) on the next one and so on... the king was even offended a bit and he asked "are you sure that's what you want? I rule over the empire I can grant any wish you have, can give you gold and treasure". But the inventor modestly insisted so they started measuring out the grains... **What do you think happened next?** 1,2,4,8,... [๐Ÿ”— https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/6451c75e-dade-44c2-841b-cdb1c3302e45](https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/6451c75e-dade-44c2-841b-cdb1c3302e45) Why don't you look it up on Youtube and post your favorite in the comments? my favorite: [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/7YQ3CZVV8PU](https://youtu.be/7YQ3CZVV8PU) bacterial growth is similarly exponential: [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/gEwzDydciWc](https://youtu.be/gEwzDydciWc) and the famous "Powers of 10"video [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/Ww4gYNrOkkg](https://youtu.be/Ww4gYNrOkkg) # Paper folding What happens when you fold a piece of paper in half and then do this repeatedly 50 times? ![folding a piece of paper](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/paper+fold.png) The thickness of a piece of paper is roughly 0.1mm.\ So when we fold it in half it becomes 0.2 mm The Guinness world record of folding a paper is 12 times [๐Ÿ”— Guinness World Record for paper folding](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/494571-most-times-to-fold-a-piece-of-paper) * Folding that piece of paper **30** times leads to 107km - about the thickness of the Earth's atmosphere. * Folding it **40** times is 5 times the length of the Great Wall of China. * **50** times is 0.75 times the Earth to Sun distance. # Characteristics of Exponential Functions we call functions like this "exponential" because *x* is in the exponent ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Slide2.PNG) ## 1% or 10% or 100% interestโ€ฆ does it change the picture? When you put your money in the bankโ€ฆ of course it matters. In the big scheme of things there is no difference as long as we take a number greater than one and keep multiplying it with itself repeatedly we see a similar curve: ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expmultiplecompared.png) ## Slow exponential growth is sub-linear ![in other words: the straight green line (linear) is above the blue (exponential) curve](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/sublinearexp.png) # Every Doubling is Greater Than All Previous Doublings Combined check this out. ### 2 > 1 ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expSlide1.png) ### 4 > 1+2 ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expSlide2.png) ### 8 > 1+2+4 ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expSlide3.png) ### 16 > 1+2+4+8 ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expSlide4.png) Going back to the wheat on the chessboard example, the first square on the second half of the chessboard has more grain than the entire first half.\ (The number of grans on the second half of the chessboard is equal to the square if tge number of grains on the first half of the board, plus itself.) # Looking at It Backwards A different way to look at exponential progress is looking at it backwards. imagine there is an exponential progression towards 100% of something. To keep it simple let's say it's doubling with every step. So at the last step you've reached your goal, you're at 100%. Where were you in the previous step? ... **only halfway**. And the step before that? Only at 25%. Imagine a lake in a national park. the ranger notices that there is some very little bacteria in the water. But it's only 0.01%. Nothing to worry about. the ranger goes on two week vacation. By the time he comes back ... what has happened? ![Human Genome Project logo](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Logo_HGP.jpg) A real life example of how counter intuitive this is was the Human Genome Project. This ambitious project started in 1990. The project set out to map (sequence0 the human genome, all 3 billion base-pairs... and hoped to finish it in 15 years. After 7 years in the project and a lot of money spent the researchers only made 1% progress. Skeptics believed it will take 700 years to finish (7\*100).\ The good news however was that progress during this first seven years showed doubling of sequenced data year after year and sure enough the project was completed in time (actually even faster, in 13 years). BTW the cost of sequencing a genome is also dropping exponentially. The very first oe cost 2.7 billion dollars. Nowadays you can get your genome sequenced for less than 500$. # We Are Not Wired Like This We evolved, coming from the savanna of Africa. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/savanna.png) When our ancestors were trying to survive what did it matter what was happening on the far side of the globe? It didnโ€™t.there was no advantage in the Darwinian race. The survival of the fittest required us to focus on dangers that are near. Local. We are also wired to think linear. We can solve a differential equation when we catch a ball. Our amigdala can make fight or flight decisions quickly. When we see a l running towards us we can calculate where we will be by the time it arrives. We rarely need to deal with exponential growth in nature. Is that actually true? Searching for applications of exponential function in physics brings up the **radio active decay**, the **capacitor discharge** and **dated oscillators**... certainly not something our ancestors would have had to worry about. This all has changed. The world is not local and linear anymore. The world is no longer local and linear; only our thinking is. True transcendence means overcoming the evolved limitations of our brain - a bit like Nash did it in A Beautiful Mind. We need to develop skills to think global and exponential. We need cognitive tools to deal with it. ## Three cases where people do meet exponential functions * viruses * credit card debt ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/ourworldindata_exponential.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/expcontinue.png) Light attenuation in fog Light attenuation refers to the gradual decrease in the intensity of light as it travels through a medium. In clean air, light attenuation follows the inverse square law, which means the intensity of light decreases with the square of the distance from the source. In fog, light attenuation is different due to the presence of tiny water droplets. These droplets scatter and absorb the light more effectively than air molecules in clean air. As a result, the intensity of light decreases at a faster rate, following an exponential pattern, as it travels through the fog. Fog makes it hard for drivers to see taillights clearly because light fades faster in fog than in clear air. Our minds aren't used to this fast fading, so we might think the car in front is farther away than it really is. This can lead to accidents. # Example: Diamandis on Corona virus Even someone expert in understanding exponential growth and spotting trends early can get it wrong. [๐Ÿ”— example of underestimating exponential growth](https://www.diamandis.com/blog/coronavirus-fear-vs-reality) Note how the comparison misses the point of exponential growth > On one of the worst days for Coronavirus in China (February 10, 2020), 108 people died. But on a given day, globally: > > * 26,283 people die of cancer; > * 49,041 people die of cardiovascular diseases; > * 4,383 people die of diabetes. > * Meanwhile, suicide takes on average 2,191 livesโ€ฆ. > * Mosquitoes take the lives of over 2,740 people, andโ€ฆ. > * And HUMANS kill an average of 1,287 fellow people, every single day. # Example: PC Pioneers on the Internet Even the pioneers of personal computing almost missed the boat in realizing the similar exponential growth of network communications. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/gates_and_jobs.png) ## Bill Gates memo 1995: the Internet Tidal Wave [Gates memo](https://lettersofnote.com/2011/07/22/the-internet-tidal-wave) Gates was playing catch-up with Netscape - the first version of the browser launched in late 1994... and thus the browser wars had begun. Even the pioneer of personal computing almost missed the boat in realizing the similar exponential growth of network communications. ## Steve Jobs 1985 playboy interview > Jobs: The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We're just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people-as remarkable as the telephone. Appleโ€™s own browser, Safari was only released in 2003. # Opinion: Daniel Kahneman: โ€˜Clearly AI is going to win.' [๐Ÿ”— https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/may/16/daniel-kahneman-clearly-ai-is-going-to-win-how-people-are-going-to-adjust-is-a-fascinating-problem-thinking-fast-and-slow](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/may/16/daniel-kahneman-clearly-ai-is-going-to-win-how-people-are-going-to-adjust-is-a-fascinating-problem-thinking-fast-and-slow) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/kahneman.png) Daniel Kahneman, 87, was awarded the Nobel prize in economics in 2002 for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making. His first book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, a worldwide bestseller, set out [his revolutionary ideas about human error and bias](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/feb/16/daniel-kahneman-thinking-fast-and-slow-tributes) and how those traits might be recognised and mitigated. A new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, written with Olivier Sibony and Cass R Sunstein, applies those ideas to organisations. This interview took place last week by Zoom with Kahneman at his home in New York. > Exponential phenomena are almost impossible for us to grasp. We are very experienced in a more or less linear world. And if things are accelerating, theyโ€™re usually accelerating within reason. Exponential change \[as with the spread of the virus] is really something else. Weโ€™re not equipped for it. It takes a long time to educate intuition. > There is going to be massive disruption. The technology is developing very rapidly, possibly exponentially. But people are linear. When linear people are faced with exponential change, theyโ€™re not going to be able to adapt to that very easily. So clearly, something is comingโ€ฆ And clearly AI is going to win \[against human intelligence]. Itโ€™s not even close. How people are going to adjust to this is a fascinating problem โ€“ but one for my children and grandchildren, not me. # Why Did Some Attempts At Innovation Fail? m not sure if you remeber Better Placeโ€ฆ it flopped, after burning 1,000,000,000$ investment. (tha one **b**illion dollars); whereas Tesla seems to be doing great, (especially here in Vancouver I see more and more on the roads). ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/tesla.png) If we look at the foundersโ€ฆ they are both freaking smart: ![Shai Agassi](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/shaiagassi.jpeg) Better Place was founded by **Shai Agassi**. The guy finished university by the age of 18. Most people donโ€™t even go to universityโ€ฆ and those who do start at 18, he *finished* it by then. We cannot complain about motivation either, since he gave up his CEO โ€œjobโ€ at SAP to do this. ![Elon Musk](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/elonmusk.png) Tesla is of course **Elon Musk**โ€™s company. Heโ€™s *rocket engineer* smart. So itโ€™s not about brain power, or motivation. Itโ€™s not about money either. Both of these people had made their money beforehand and didnโ€™t start empty handed. In comparison, actually Tesla was struggling with money and becoming sustainable as a business in the early days which would suggest it should be the one that floppedโ€ฆ Better Place was able to raise tons of money. I think Teslaโ€™s success and Better Placeโ€™s failure may be explained with their different views on technology. Listen carefully to what Shai Agassi is saying on the TED stage: [๐Ÿ”— pay attention at 1:45](https://youtu.be/FcoJt2KLC9k) > โ€ฆwithin the **boundary of the science we know today**. No time for a science fair. No time for playing around with things, or waiting for the magic battery to show upโ€ฆ > > โ€ฆWe are bound at todayโ€™s technology at batteriesโ€ฆ Shai is 100 times smarter than meโ€ฆ so I may be wrong on thisโ€ฆ but I think he made a mistake at underestimating the rate at which technology keeps getting better. In contrast, compare this with Kurzweilโ€™s product launches which are barely feasible in their early days but are built on exponentially advancing technologies which just makes them better and better. It also just might be bad karma taking investment from oil money to build an electric car company ๐Ÿค” # Moore's Law !\[Gordon Earle Moore (born January 3, 1929) is an American businessman, engineer, and the co-founder and chairman emeritus of Intel Corporation.]\( moore.png) In 1965 Gordon Moore posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. Moore's Law is exponential [๐Ÿ”— https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor)
Ray Kurzweil extended it by looking back historically ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/exp1chart.png) and predicted it will continue, going forward ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/graphMoore.png) Kurzweil's predictions were made decades ago so by now he has an excellent [track record](https://www.kurzweilai.net/how-my-predictions-are-faring-an-update-by-ray-kurzweil). ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/multipleexp.png) extending Moorle's Law in time and scope Kurzweil also extended Moore's Law in scope: it's not just about computers but abut every technology that becomes "information enabled". ## Some Charts of Technological Change [๐Ÿ”— Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputers](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/supercomputer-power-flops) [๐Ÿ”— Computation used to train notable artificial intelligence systems](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ai-training-computation) [๐Ÿ”— Historical cost of computer memory and storage](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historical-cost-of-computer-memory-and-storage?country=~OWID_WRL) # Law of Accelerating Returns Ray Kurzweil - extending and generalizing Moore's Law ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/kurzweil.png) > An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is **exponential**, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view.\ > So we wonโ€™t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century โ€” it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at todayโ€™s rate). We are **using better tools to make better tools.** ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/oldpc.png) * How did Bill Gates and Microsoft write an operating system without a PC? * How did Intel design a microprocessor integrated circuit chip โ€ฆ without a microprocessor? [๐Ÿ”— https://www.ted.com/talks/ray\_kurzweil\_the\_accelerating\_power\_of\_technology](https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_the_accelerating_power_of_technology) # Quantum Computing ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/quantumcomputer.png) Classical computers work with *bits* of information. At the most atomic level there is something that is true or false, 1 or 0, black or white. Quantum computers on the other hand take advantage of phenomena in quantum physics and work with [*qubits*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qubit). There are 0 and 1 and everything in between. They allow applications where instead of doing a calculation for for a large number of possibilities one after the other the calculation is done for all possible inputs all at once. This is a great explainer from 2016 [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/LP\_\_QwGZScg](https://youtu.be/LP__QwGZScg) ## Quantum Supremacy The term quantum supremacy means a point in time where quantum computers have reached a point that they can do a calculation significantly faster than even the biggest baddest super computer could. So far Google and the University of Science and Technology of China have claimed to reach quantum supremacy. [๐Ÿ”— Google: Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy](https://youtu.be/-ZNEzzDcllU) ### Applications so what is this super fast computing good for? * cryptography * quantum computers will be capable to break most of today's encryption * search problems * simulation of quantum systems in particular for material science , drug discovery, genomics * machine learning in other words, it will allow new levels of achievements in several emerging technologies: * Artificial Intelligence * 3D Printing AKA additive manufacturing * synthetic biology ## Will it replace "normal" computers? Don't expect everyone to replace their PC or Mac with quantum computers. Classical 0-1, true or false binary computers will co-exist with quantum computing. Each has its own use and benefits. ## Quantum Internet The same way how early mainframes were connected with computer networks that grew to become the Internet there is ongoing work and research to transmit information in the form of qubits connecting quantum computers. One application is *secure communications* that is physically guaranteed to remain private. ## Get Hands On Cloud providers now each allow people to access quantum computers [๐Ÿ”— AWS](https://aws.amazon.com/braket) [๐Ÿ”— Azure Cloud](https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/services/quantum) [๐Ÿ”— Google Cloud](https://quantumai.google) [๐Ÿ”— IBM Cloud](https://cloud.ibm.com/quantum) [๐Ÿ”— D-Wave](https://www.dwavesys.com/solutions-and-products/cloud-platform) # Collect Pictures of Old Computers Can you please **post some pictures of old computers** or old smartphones? Because of doubling a next generation computer is always more powerful than all previous generations combined. Can you work together to create a slide showing such a comparison? ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/iphones.png) When a company announces their new product they usually mention how much faster it is than the older model. Apple's iPhone keynotes are a good example of this. Can you find examples on YouTube (or elsewhere) ? ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Phil2x1.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Phil2x2.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/PhilCPU.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/PhilMontage.png) Think back... what happens when something gets 50% or a 100% better year after year? # Introduction ![Artificial intelligence (AI)](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/AI.png) ![Robots](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/robot.png) We can think about each emerging technology as a **superpower**. Superpowers work in two realms: the physical world where things are tangible, made of material, made of โ€œstuffโ€ โ€“ the world of atoms\ and in the realm of imagination, intuition - the digital world of bits. (See the red ones (1) and zeros (0) ? ... those represent bits. The blue flower looking things are atoms) **Automator** is the first superpower we will learn about. The **Automator** is the power to *automate* things. In the world of bits and information it means creating programs that โ€œthinkโ€ by themselves. In the world of atoms, it goes further, having machines that do stuff on their own. *Artificial Intelligence (AI*) and *Robots* give the abilities for automation. (Of course they both rely on Computing as well as other things like *Energy.*) *** In the *Convergence Canvas*, a visual thinking tool we'll introduce later, automator fits as this: ![Convergence Canvas Automator](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+Automator.png) # The Kind of Things a Computer Would Never Be Able To Do When I was going to university there was a competition with some prize money for anyone who can figure out how to write a program that can recognize text in a photograph - what today is called "optical character recognition" (OCR). There are a lot of things that people thought is so much so "human" that a computer will never be able to do it; let alone do it better than the best human in the world. Can you think of such things... before we look at some examples of what has already been done? Can a computer beat the world champion in chess? Paint a painting? Compose music? # Kasparow's Law > Garry Kasparov is arguably the greatest chess player of all time. From 1986 until his retirement in 2005, he was ranked world No 1. He is also a leading human rights activist and is probably close to the top of Vladimir Putinโ€™s hitlist, not least because he tried to run against him for the Russian presidency in 2007. But for people who are interested only in technology, Kasparov is probably best known as the first world champion to be beaten by a machine. In 1997, in a famous six-game match with the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue, he lost 3ยฝ-2ยฝ. > > In the grand scheme of things, losing by one game in a six-game match might not seem much, but at the time it was seen as a major milestone in the long march towards โ€œartificialโ€ intelligence (AI).\ > \ > [Guardian article by John Naughton](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jun/04/deep-thinking-where-machine-intelligence-ends-human-creativity-begins-garry-kasparov-review) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/kasparov.png) In addition to the [historic significance of a computer beating the bast human in chess](https://www.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepblue/)... the other interesting thing is what he wrote in his reflection and became known as Kasparov's law. If you like chess read more A strong human working together with "the machine" (AI) can eat the machine.\ And a weak human plus the machine plus better process can beat a strong human plus the machine plus an inferior process. The ranking is: 1. weaker (or Average Joe) human working with AI and having a strong process 2. stronger human working with AI 3. AI 4. human ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/kasparowslaw.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/NP8xt8o4\_5Q](https://youtu.be/NP8xt8o4_5Q) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/zhkTHkIZJEc](https://youtu.be/zhkTHkIZJEc) # AlphaGo Go is an ancient board game with a rich history. It's believed to be the oldest board game continuously played to present day. It was invented in China, more than 2500 years ago. Go was considered one of the four essential arts of the cultured aristocratic Chinese scholars in antiquity. ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_\(game\))) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/go.png) What interesting is that the number of possible moves and counter moves makes it more complex than chess. the number of possible board positions in Go is approximately 2.1 \* 10^170 In other words... the same "brute-force" approach used by super computers to beat humans in chess will no longer work. Something fundamentally different is needed. October 2015 - AlphaGo defeated the European Go champion FanHui March 2016 - AlphaGo defeated Lee Sedol, one of the best players at Go October 2017 AlphaGo Zero, a version trained without human data beat AlphaGo December 2017 a generalized version called AlphaZero achieved within 24 hours superhuman level of play in games of chess, shogi and Go ### Move 37 With the 37th move in the match's [second game](https://www.wired.com/2016/03/googles-ai-wins-pivotal-game-two-match-go-grandmaster/j), AlphaGo landed a surprise on the right-hand side of the 19-by-19 board that flummoxed even the world's best Go players, including Lee Sedol. "That's a very strange move," said one commentator, himself a nine dan Go player, the highest rank there is. "I thought it was a mistake," said the other. Lee Sedol, after leaving the match room, took nearly fifteen minutes to formulate a response. Fan Gui---the three-time European Go champion who played AlphaGo during a closed-door match in October, [losing five games to none](https://www.wired.com/2016/01/in-a-huge-breakthrough-googles-ai-beats-a-top-player-at-the-game-of-go/)---reacted with incredulity. But then, drawing on his experience with AlphaGo---he has played the machine time and again in the five months since October---Fan Hui [saw the beauty in this rather unusual move](https://www.wired.com/2016/03/sadness-beauty-watching-googles-ai-play-go/). Indeed, the move turned the course of the game. AlphaGo went on to win Game Two, and at the post-game press conference, Lee Sedol was in shock. "Yesterday, I was surprised," he said through an interpreter, referring to his loss in [Game One](https://www.wired.com/2016/03/googles-ai-wins-first-game-historic-match-go-champion/). "But today I am speechless. If you look at the way the game was played, I admit, it was a very clear loss on my part. From the very beginning of the game, there was not a moment in time when I felt that I was leading.\ \ [Wired: In Two Moves, AlphaGo and Lee Sedol Redefined the Future](https://www.wired.com/2016/03/two-moves-alphago-lee-sedol-redefined-future/) So first there was an algorithm that could beat the best human player, showed something that is as close to brilliant intuition as it gets... and was trained on previous human played games (Go has a written history dating back centuries).\ then came a version called "zero" because it received zero training, it learned by playing itself - and it beat the previous version.\ And then came the generalized zero version that can do the same thing for other games. You can watch the full award winning documentary on YouTube [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/WXuK6gekU1Y](https://youtu.be/WXuK6gekU1Y) # IBM Watson [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/P18EdAKuC1U](https://youtu.be/P18EdAKuC1U) > Jeopardy! is an American television game show created by Merv Griffin. The show features a **quiz competition in which contestants are presented with general knowledge clues in the form of answers**, and must phrase their responses in the form of questions.\ > [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeopardy!) and the computer Watson by IBM won against the champions. Watch what Ken Jennings has to say about losing to the machine: [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/b2M-SeKey4o](https://youtu.be/b2M-SeKey4o) BTW back then the computer looked like this ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/watson.png) ...nowadays it fits in a pizza box. This archive has all full episodes: # Robots ## Robots The best collection of robots I've found online: ## Humanoid Robots Humanoid robots are developed to mimic human form and behaviors, allowing them to operate in human-centric environments without needing specialized infrastructure. They enable more intuitive interactions, can perform a variety of tasks ranging from household chores to industrial applications, and are used in education and entertainment. These robots also serve critical roles in unsafe conditions, such as disaster zones or hazardous environments, enhancing safety and efficiency. There could be around 1 billion humanoid robots on Earth by the 2040s. Humanoid robots could eventually outnumber humans. we will need to rethink economy. We currntly measure economic output as product per capita (per person)... what happens when the number of persons no longer matters? ### Tesla Optimus ![Optimus Folding Shirts](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/OptimusFoldingShirt.gif) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/TeslaOptimusGen2.jpg) Tesla, is developing a humanoid robot called Optimus, which Elon Musk believes could have a two-order magnitude potential improvement in economic output. He has also mentioned that the cost of these robots could be less than $20,000 per unit, and that they could be produced in the millions. ### Figure ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/figureRobot.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.figure.ai/](https://www.figure.ai/) ### Ameca ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/ameca.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.engineeredarts.co.uk/robot/ameca](https://www.engineeredarts.co.uk/robot/ameca/) ### Sanctuary.ai ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/sanctuaryai.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://sanctuary.ai/product/](https://sanctuary.ai/product/) ### Unitree H1 ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/unitree_h1jpg.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.unitree.com/h1](https://www.unitree.com/h1/) ### NEO by 1X ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/neo.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.1x.tech/androids/neo](https://www.1x.tech/androids/neo) ### Fourier Intelligence ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/fourier_GR1.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://robots.fourierintelligence.com/](https://robots.fourierintelligence.com/) ### Apptronik ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/apptronik2.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://apptronik.com/](https://apptronik.com/) # Introduction ![Networks](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/network.png) ![Transportation](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/transportation.png) The **Mover** is the power to move things. Either you move matter, tangible things in the world of atoms; or you move and distribute information. Bits. ![Convergence Canvas Mover](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+Mover.png) *Networking* gives the ability for communication, moving bits. *Transportation* technology on the other hand moves physical things and can happen autonomously: * in the air - with drones * on land - with self-driving cars and trucks * ...also, on water even into space. # Connecting All 7+ Billion People ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/number-of-internet-users-by-country.png) ...in other words, we are still not there yet, **not everyone has access to the Internet**. For more great charts check out So there is this idea to connect al 7+ billion humans and bring them broadband. How? Here are some ideas that have been tried ### Balloons #### discontinued๐Ÿฅ€ ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/balloons.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://x.company/projects/loon/](https://x.company/projects/loon/) ### Solar-powered Drones #### discontinued๐Ÿฅ€ ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/solar_drone.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://engineering.fb.com/2016/07/21/connectivity/flying-aquila-early-lessons-from-the-first-full-scale-test-flight-and-the-path-ahead/](https://engineering.fb.com/2016/07/21/connectivity/flying-aquila-early-lessons-from-the-first-full-scale-test-flight-and-the-path-ahead/) ### Satellite ๐Ÿ† ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/satellitebroadband.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.starlink.com/](https://www.starlink.com/) # Self-Driving Vehicles Have you heard about self-driving cars? Well, it's **not only cars** that can be self-driving. Please search a bit and post what other types of vehicles you find that autonomously drive themselves. # our collection ## On Water ### Ferry Boat ![zeubuz](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/selfdrivingboat.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.zeabuz.com/](https://www.zeabuz.com/) ### Cargo Ship ![Yara Birkeland](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/yara_birkeland.png) [๐Ÿ”— Yara Birkeland](https://www.yara.com/news-and-media/media-library/press-kits/yara-birkeland-press-kit/) ## On Land ### Bicycle ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-bicycle.png) [๐Ÿ”— Introducing the self-driving bicycle in the Netherlands - by Google Nederland](https://youtu.be/LSZPNwZex9s?si=VImSfoRUbLvp9Tii) ### Motorbike ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-motorbike.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— World First BMW Self Driving Motorbike Demo Live Video 2019 BMW Vision R1200 Autonomous Motorbike V](https://youtu.be/MfGmfV9em1A?si=gRxxqDn_uPbFKCty) ### Tractor ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-tractor.png) [John Deere fully autonomous tractor - CES 2022](https://www.deere.com/en/news/all-news/autonomous-tractor-reveal/) ### Stroller ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-stroller.jpg) [Gluxkind AI stroller](https://gluxkind.com/) ## In the Air ### Helicopter ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-helicopter.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— Sikorsky and DARPA Autonomous Black Hawk](https://youtu.be/dYcq_pzLsjA?si=EntAXYubCTxmFvre) ### Fighter Jet ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/self-driving-f16.jpg) [๐Ÿ”— AI F16](https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/inside-the-special-f-16-the-air-force-is-using-to-test-out-ai/) # Flying Cars I suppose *flying cars* count as a special case of drones. eVTOL stands for **E**lectric - **V**ertical **T**ake-**O**ff and **L**anding.\ Some are autonomous, some are piloted and assisted by automation. [๐Ÿ”— Cadillac eVTOL concept](https://www.gmexhibitzero.com/en-ca) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/evtol_cadillac1.png) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/evtol_cadillac2.png) [๐Ÿ”— XPENG](https://youtu.be/PQuuzG6eQmE) [๐Ÿ”— https://en.xiaopeng.com/news/news\_info/4061.html](https://en.xiaopeng.com/news/news_info/4061.html) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/xiaopeng.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/6mbir6u\_AHo](https://youtu.be/6mbir6u_AHo) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/dOhM9xlwOKE](https://youtu.be/dOhM9xlwOKE) [๐Ÿ”— Volocopter](https://www.volocopter.com) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/volocopter.png) [๐Ÿ”— Joby Aviation/](https://www.jobyaviation.com/) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/4wbFw165ar0](https://youtu.be/4wbFw165ar0) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.airev.aero/](https://www.airev.aero/) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/airev.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.jetsonaero.com/](https://www.jetsonaero.com/)] [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/FzhREYOK0oo](https://youtu.be/FzhREYOK0oo) [๐Ÿ”— https://opener.aero/](https://opener.aero/) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/I2D4CS6YTXk](https://youtu.be/I2D4CS6YTXk) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.firenzelanciare.com/](https://www.firenzelanciare.com/) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/aerocar.png) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.bellwether-industries.com/](https://www.bellwether-industries.com/) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/YlPfR\_igEbY](https://youtu.be/YlPfR_igEbY) [๐Ÿ”— https://wisk.aero/ (purchased by Boeing)](https://wisk.aero/) ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/wiskaero.png) [๐Ÿ”— Uber Air | Uber ElevateAnnounced December 2020, Joby Aviation will acquire Uber Elevate. The two parent companies have agreed to integrate their respective services into each other's apps, enabling seamless integration between ground and air travel for future customers. This deal allows Uber to deepen our partnership with Joby and accelerate the path to market for these technologies and moves the Elevate team to Joby.](https://www.uber.com/ca/en/elevate/) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/JuWOUEFB\_IQ](https://youtu.be/JuWOUEFB_IQ) # Point to Point When you want to travel point to point but the roads don't go that way... you cannot do it on the surface; you have two options... ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/road.png) ### Go Up ... into the sky [๐Ÿ”— Uber Elevate](https://youtu.be/44bSw-wPW4c) The pivotal vehicle technology behind Uber Air is Distributed Electric Propulsion (DEP), which enables fault-tolerance in the vertical lift system, increasing safety, reducing maintenance costs, and making operations up to 100 times quieter than conventional helicopters. DEP, combined with current battery performance, lightweight materials, and automation, allows for the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft suitable for dense urban areas. These aircraft are engineered for safety and will be certified by relevant civil aviation authorities. The DEP architecture provides redundancy at multiple levels, resulting in quieter aircraft with nearly silent overflight capabilities. Uber Air eVTOL aircraft are designed to fly at speeds of 150 mph or more at altitudes of 1,000 to 2,000 feet above ground level, with a range of up to 60 miles. Uber plans to offer pooled trips with up to 4 passengers in addition to the pilot, aiming to make aerial mobility sustainable and affordable for a large part of the community. The fully electric aircraft generate zero emissions during flight and are part of the solution to address climate change challenges. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/uberair.png) ### Go Down ... and dig [๐Ÿ”— https://www.boringcompany.com/](https://www.boringcompany.com/) The Boring Company aims to address traffic congestion by advocating for the use of tunnels as a solution. Tunnels are considered advantageous over flying cars as they are weatherproof, hidden from view, and do not pose the risk of falling on individuals. They also make efficient use of land and do not interfere with existing transportation systems. The company's Loop system, exemplified by the LVCC Loop in Las Vegas, offers zero-emissions underground transportation directly to destinations without intermediate stops. Additionally, the introduction of Prufrock, a high-speed tunneling machine, is set to revolutionize infrastructure construction by significantly reducing project timelines. ๐Ÿ”— ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/boring.png) # Private Space Flight ## Private Space Flight [๐Ÿ“— How to Make a Spaceship](http://www.julianguthriesf.com/how-to-make-a-spaceship.html) [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/EP0D6tPRHs4](https://youtu.be/EP0D6tPRHs4) ### Virgin Galactic [Virgin Galactic](https://www.virgingalactic.com/)'s First Fully Crewed Spaceflight Unity22 [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/ZPrB3WvnZpE](https://youtu.be/ZPrB3WvnZpE) ### Blue Origin [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/)'s New Shepard Mission NS-19 [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/SvXmdgvcjkQ](https://youtu.be/SvXmdgvcjkQ) ### SpaceX [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/updates/inspiration4/index.html) Inspiration 4 [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/3pv01sSq44w](https://youtu.be/3pv01sSq44w) Watch [Countdown: Inspiration 4 Mission to Space on Netflix](https://www.netflix.com/title/81441273) [๐Ÿ”— https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=\~OWID\_WRL\&yScale=log](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space?country=~OWID_WRL\&yScale=log) ## Moon Landing The first private spacecraft to successfully land on the Moon is the Odysseus spacecraft, built by [Intuitive Machines](https://www.intuitivemachines.com/) in Houston, Texas. It landed near the lunar south pole on February 22, 2024, marking the first private Moon landing and the first U.S. lunar lander since 1972. ## Takeaways There were private (rich) people before who got to go into space... what's different this time is that the launches, the vehicles, the passengers everything is private companies. * Space is no longer for national space agencies only - **you don't have to become a NASA astronaut** * **You don't** even **have to be a millionaire**, because the price dropped to a "few" hundred thousands You can launch your own *cubesat* ( a small, 10cm X 10cm X 10cm satellite) into space for ... ? # Intrduction ![3D printing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/3dprinting.png) ![Internet of Things (IOT)](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/iot.png) The **Portal** is the power to go back and forth between the real word, the world of atoms and the imagined world, the world of bits. ![Convergence Canvas Portal](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+Portal.png) The *Internet of Things (IOT)* give the ability to sense the real world - microphones to hear, cameras to see etc. - so that those measurements become information. *3D-Printing* is additive manufacturing, how we turn information - a design - into reality. # Internet of Things The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a **network** of physical devices embedded with **sensors**, software, and other technologies that enable them to connect and exchange data with other devices and systems over the internet. IoT devices can range from everyday objects like smart home devices to sophisticated industrial tools. These devices collect data from their environment, communicate over the internet, and can respond intelligently to users. IoT systems typically consist of smart devices, IoT applications that analyze data, and a graphical user interface for device management. ## Digital Twins A digital twin is a virtual model of a physical product, system, or process that serves as a digital counterpart for various purposes such as simulation, testing, monitoring, and maintenance. Digital twins use real-time data from **sensors** to simulate the behavior of the physical object and monitor its performance throughout its lifecycle. # 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing When you shoot a spaceship into space the rocket can only carry so much weight. Astronauts need careful planning to make sure they will have all the equipment they might need. International Space Shuttle (ISS) commander Barry 'Butch' Wilmore needed a wrench. They did not have it with them and waiting for a resupply mission is kind of time consuming, not to mention expensive. This is where the awesomeness of 3D printing comes in. You can just email someone a physical object. Fortunately, the ISS had a 3D printer on board, design specifically for zero gravity environment by the company, Made in Space. And they printed the wrench. ![This isn't the first 3D-printed object made in space, but it is the first created to meet the needs of an astronaut.](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/wrench-428x321.gif) [๐Ÿ”— https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/dec/20/iss-astronaut-uses-3d-printer-to-make-socket-wrench-in-space](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/dec/20/iss-astronaut-uses-3d-printer-to-make-socket-wrench-in-space) 3D printing has another benefit, it can create geometries that would be hard or impossible to make with traditional manufacturing that is usually subtractive - it removes material. 3D printing is **additive** manufacturing. It builds up objects layer by layer.n !\[cloud of points and wire frame]\( printing wireframe.png) !\[slices of layers]\( printing slices.png) While usual consumer 3D printers just work with cheap PLAplastic... this technology has matured to suite industrial production. The choice of materials is broad: different plastics, resins, metals - aluminum, titanium, stainless steel, ceramics, wood, carbon fiber, paper, wax You can have it be flexible or conductive, full color, medical grade or jewelry. ## The importance of 3D design Imagine of you only looked at color pictures in book and magazines or online... but would not have your own camera or would not be able to paint (and then scan it). Imagine if you could only print documents others have written. With 3D printing it's similar. There are sites where you can download 3D models from... but it's way cooler if you can create your own. Plus, 3D design also comes handy to build virtual world with [VR](/link/virtual-reality-vr). [๐Ÿ”— Elon Musk showing how they design rocket engines - using VR and 3D Printing](https://youtu.be/xNqs_S-zEBY) # What Questions Should We Ask? With the rise of IOT we can have sensors - cameras, microphones, thermometers, etc. - everywhere; all pumping "big data" that we can then analyze with computers and AI - looking for patterns, looking for anomalies. One way to frame it is - coming from Peter Diamandis - is that we will live i a world where it is possible to know anything and everything. Let's set aside the privacy implications... and focus on if we can get the answer to any question what questions should we ask? # Introduction ![synthetic Biology](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/synbio.png) The **Life Force** is the power read and write information stored in living creatures thereby altering what and how they do. *Synthetic Biology* gives the ability for both sequencing the genome and for gene-editing. It's like being able to read and write the "Book of Life" - even to copy and paste! ![Convrgence Canvas SynBio](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+SynBio.png) # Longevity Escape Velocity The idea of Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) refers to a theoretical point in time at which medical, technological, and scientific advancements will extend human life expectancy faster than time is passing. In other words, for every year that passes, science would extend human life expectancy by more than a year, thus theoretically enabling humans to become biologically immortal. LEV is projected to be reached within the next ten to twenty years according to predictions by Ray Kurzweil and George Church. Kurzweil believes that in the near future, scientific advancements will enable us to extend life by more than a year for every year we are alive. Currently, it is one year of extra life expectancy for every four years we live. Church notes that the exponential technologies enhancing the speed and cost-efficiency of DNA-related therapies are rapidly advancing the field of aging reversal. ## Dublin Longevity Declaration The Dublin Longevity Declaration highlights the shift in perception towards aging, emphasizing the importance of healthspan over lifespan. It discusses the progress in longevity research, the malleability of aging, and the potential for interventions to extend both lifespan and healthspan simultaneously. The declaration stresses the need to focus on healthspan due to public misconceptions about aging and the ethical considerations of living longer. While current interventions may extend healthspan more than lifespan, achieving better control of aging could revolutionize medical practice, improve quality of life, and address healthcare costs. The declaration calls for a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding aging processes and emphasizes the importance of answering fundamental questions in biology to advance longevity research. It also explores emerging strategies and questions in longevity research, such as combinatorial approaches, novel small molecules, cellular reprogramming, gene therapy, and personalized interventions. The declaration concludes by envisioning a future where aging is controlled, leading to significant societal changes and improved quality of life for individuals. The Dublin Longevity Declaration has signatories that include most of the world's leaders in the biology of aging; including: * Aubrey de Grey * George Church * David Sinclair * Nir Barzalai [๐Ÿ”— Dublin Longevity Declaration](https://dublinlongevitydeclaration.org/) ## Information Theory of Aging The Information Theory of Aging, as presented by David Sinclair and colleagues, suggests that aging occurs due to the loss of epigenetic information within our cells. This concept is drawn from the understanding that biological information is stored in two main ways: the genome (DNA), which is stable and acts as a foundational blueprint, and the epigenome, which includes chemical modifications that regulate gene expression and give cells their unique functions. Unlike DNA, the epigenome is more flexible and susceptible to changes induced by environmental signals and cellular damage. The theory posits that as we age, our cells lose this vital epigenetic information, leading to a decrease in cellular function and identity. This loss manifests as "epigenetic noise," where cells become less efficient at their designated roles, leading to the various symptoms and diseases associated with aging. An analogy used to explain this is a scratched CD or record: the music (or DNA information) is still there, but it becomes harder to read accurately due to damage (epigenetic changes) over time. ![ITOA](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/ITOA.png) However, the theory also suggests a hopeful aspect: the possibility of reversing aging by restoring the epigenetic information, akin to smoothing out the scratches on the CD. This could theoretically return aged cells to a more youthful state. The concept is supported by the existence of "epigenetic clocks," biological markers that are considered reliable indicators of biological age based on epigenetic changes. [๐Ÿ”— ITOA](https://t.co/mMgtEw4AOc) \[๐Ÿ”— ICE paper] () # End of Disease It is possible that we may be able to eliminate all infectious diseases in the coming decades, thanks to the significant amount of funding and research that is currently being devoted to this area. The development of new technologies such as gene editing and personalized medicine have given scientists and medical researchers new tools to tackle diseases at a molecular level. Additionally, the increasing globalization of research and the sharing of knowledge and resources among scientists around the world has also helped to accelerate progress in this area. # Hallmarks of Aging # Cultured Meat # Plant Based Meat (Meet?) What kind of foods can you find plat based alternative for? * burger ๐Ÿ” * [๐Ÿ”— https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/burger](https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/burger) * [๐Ÿ”— https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-CA/products/the-beyond-burger?variant=beyond-burger](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-CA/products/the-beyond-burger?variant=beyond-burger) * sausage ๐ŸŒญ * [๐Ÿ”— https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/products/sausage](https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/products/sausage) * chicken nuggets ๐Ÿ— * [๐Ÿ”— https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/products/chicken](https://impossiblefoods.com/ca/products/chicken) * eggs ๐Ÿฅš * [๐Ÿ”— https://www.ju.st/ca/us-en/cook](https://www.ju.st/ca/us-en/cook) * fish fillet ๐ŸŸ * [๐Ÿ”— https://www.gardein.com/fishless](https://www.gardein.com/fishless) * [๐Ÿ”— https://goodcatchfoods.com/our-products/](https://goodcatchfoods.com/our-products/) * sushi ๐Ÿฃ * [๐Ÿ”— https://oceanhuggerfoods.com/](https://oceanhuggerfoods.com/) * milk chocolate ๐Ÿซ * [๐Ÿ”— https://www.moofreechocolates.com/](https://www.moofreechocolates.com/) # Fermentation # Can We Live Forever? Should We? Interesting (to me at least) that some people do not want to live forever.\ Let me phrase it: if you could live in good health in peace and prosperity surrounded by freinds and family; not drooling in a wheelchain, more like you 40 or 30 year old self... would you ever want it to end and die? # Introduction ![Virtual Reality](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/ARVR.png) The **Link** is the power to overlay the two realms on one another. ![Convergence Canvas Link](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+Link.png) *Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality* gives the ability to create experiences that we sense as we would with in feel the real world and to mix digital creatures of imagination with the world of atoms. # Virtual Reality (VR) ![VR goggles](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/vr.png) The main idea here is that us, humans we experience the world through our senses; and if we can trick our senses through the use of some technology then we can change our experience and create new, imagined, virtual **experiences**. The five senses are commonly believed to be vision, hearing, smell, taste and touch... we shall see that there is more to it. Have you ever ridden a roller coaster? Have you felt anything? What was it? ## Hearing Tricking the ears is quite easy. Think about how you can listen to music even though there are no *real* musicians nearby. It just comes from the speakers. How many people listen to virtual sounds on the public transit through their airpods and headphones - instead of listening to the real world? !\[girl listening to virtual sounds]\( transit.png) ### Spatial Audio In the real world we assign spatial information to sounds. If you're on my left hand side then I hear your voice more from my left ear. If I turn my head and face towards you the left and right ears equal out. VR headsets and some headphones such as the Apple AirPods Max have sensors for this reason that detect the change in the orientation of the device. See High Fidelity a company offering develpment kit to build spatial audio experiences. They had an interesting pivot, narrowing their focus on on spatial audio after being too early to the VR market. They had cool, record breaking shared social VR experiences. [๐Ÿ”— https://www.highfidelity.com](https://www.highfidelity.com) ## Vision Tricking our eyes we can do with placing a screen in fron of your eyes. Of course it's not that easy to do it right: we need to get a nice view with good resolution, high refresh rate, broad field of view and so light that you don't even notice it. The resolution of the human eye is 576 megapixels. If we put a 4K screen in fron of an eye that's about 8 megapixels. Do we really need 576 before it get really really good? ## Touch Touch can be tricked we so called haptics. ![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/oldvr.png) ## What About Smell and Taste? Actually, when we taste food much of the tasting we attribute to our tongue actually happens in the nose. Is it possible to recreate any smell the way we build up any color from Red, Green and Blue (RGB)?\ Some research indicates it is. [๐Ÿ”— https://www.weizmann-usa.org/news-media/in-the-news/digitizing-odors-israelis-whiff-the-future-with-smellophone-tech-breakthrough](https://www.weizmann-usa.org/news-media/in-the-news/digitizing-odors-israelis-whiff-the-future-with-smellophone-tech-breakthrough) # Search for Videos of People Experiencing VR People's reaction can be funny when they first experience VR - at least, it's funny for the outsider. Post some you find online. # Augmented Reality (AR) When you are in VR the device overtakes the whole experience, especially the goggles in front of your eyes. Sone see-though visor that allows you to not walk into the brickwall and overlays some digital information on top of it. Some newer devices allow to go from one end to the other, to gradually dim out the real world. ## Honorary mentions ### Pokemon Go this AR game where people chased Pokemon creatures all around the citis. !\[]\( go.png) ### HoloLens Microsoft's VR headset is in the AR category. ![Hololens](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/hololens.png) It's easy to see how useful this can be... * a surgeon seeing internal organs before making a cut * a mechanic seeing parts of an engine when taking it apart * police and army seing who is the bad guy in a crowd (but who decides anyways?) ### Magic Leap The urban legend goes like this:\ after giving a demo to the investors they were invited into a conference room here coffee wold be served. When they reached for the coffee mug their hand went through the projection. The coffee wasn't real. Next they reached for their checkbooks. !\[]\( leap.png) # Mixed Reality (MR) It looks to me that ๐Ÿ‘‰ [Microsoft ](https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/mixed-reality/discover/mixed-reality)has invented this term and only they know what it means and why/how it is different than AR and VR. # Collect Use Cases Virtual Reality can be useful to visualize things that we would otherwise not be able to see. | Why? | example | | -------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | | because it's too small | atoms, molecules | | because it's too large | solar system, galaxy | | because it's inaccessible | ancient Egyptian tomb that is too small to host thousands of tourists | | because it was in a different time and space | Google Earth, historical scenery | | | | What other uses of AR and VR can you think of? # Spatial Web Let me try my own definition: spatial web is making Augmented Reality that is aware of the real world's physical, 3D environment and location. Imagine putting a non-existent, virtual coffee mug on the table for your friend to find the next day. It will allow persistent digital overlays on top of the real world. # Metaverse > A massively scaled and interoperable network of real-time rendered 3D virtual worlds that can be experienced synchronously and persistently by an effectively unlimited number of users with an individual sense of presence, and with continuity of data, such as identity, history, entitlements, objects, communications, and payments.\ > \ > The Metaverse- Matthew Ball [๐Ÿ”— https://youtu.be/cSp1dM2Vj48](https://youtu.be/cSp1dM2Vj48) # Introduction ![Energy](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/energy.png) ![Crypto](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/crypto.png) ![Computing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/computing.png) the "Power" superpower? ... That wouldn't make much sense. So let's just look at these two as simply power. ![Convergence Canvas Power](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/Convergence+Canvas+Power.png) *Energy* gives us power. And yes, most everything we have learned about needs *Computing*, but *Computing* itself also requires Energy. There are different ways to produce energy... the interesting thing is that clean sources such as solar and wind are also growing exponentially. Money can be thought of as stored work, stored energy. Money is power ... so to speak.\ *Crypto-currency*, blockchain - starting with Bitcoin - is one of the greatest inventions of the 21st century. Let's dig in why. # Decentralize What system can you think of that is currently **centralized** and could benefit from a complete redesign and rethinking in a decentralized way? As an example: My favorite is *education* Think about it: * who decides how the funding - from our collected taxes - is allocated and spent? * who decides on what to learn? the curriculum * who owns and operates the buildings where it takes place? * who hires and pays the teachers? * how can you prove that you passed a test, graduated? who holds the credentials? you can elaborate on rethinking school and educationโ€ฆ or suggest something else that can similarly be decentralizedโ€ฆ # 100% of Energy Needs Met From Solar n the coming decade, it is likely that we will see significant advancements in solar power technology. As a result, it is possible that we will be able to meet all of our energy demands from solar power generation. One of the main reasons for this is the rapid progress being made in the development of more efficient solar panels. Currently, most solar panels are able to convert about 15-20% of the sunlight that hits them into electricity. However, researchers are working on new technologies that could increase this efficiency to as much as 40%. This would mean that we would need fewer solar panels to generate the same amount of electricity, which would make solar power more cost-effective. Another factor that will help us meet our energy demands from solar power is the increasing amount of investment in the industry. As more and more people and companies recognize the benefits of solar power, they are investing more money in the development of new technologies and the construction of solar power plants. This investment will help to drive down the cost of solar power and make it more competitive with other forms of energy. Finally, the availability of more advanced storage technologies will also play a role in our ability to meet our energy demands from solar power. Currently, one of the main challenges with solar power is that it is not always available โ€“ for example, at night or on cloudy days. However, new technologies like advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells will make it possible to store excess solar power for use when it is needed. This will help to ensure that we have a reliable source of energy even when the sun is not shining. Overall, while there are still challenges to be overcome, the coming decade is likely to see significant progress in the development of solar power technology. As a result, it is possible that we will be able to meet all of our energy needs from solar power generation