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Progress and Predictions
  • Progress and Predictions
  • Introduction
    • The Story of The Creator of Chess
    • Paper folding
    • Characteristics of Exponential Functions
    • Every Doubling is Greater Than All Previous Doublings Combined
    • Looking at It Backwards
    • We Are Not Wired Like This
      • Example: Diamandis on Corona virus
      • Example: PC Pioneers on the Internet
      • Opinion: Daniel Kahneman: ‘Clearly AI is going to win.'
    • Why Did Some Attempts At Innovation Fail?
    • Moore's Law
    • Law of Accelerating Returns
    • Quantum Computing
    • 😅Collect Pictures of Old Computers
  • Automator
    • Introduction
    • 😅The Kind of Things a Computer Would Never Be Able To Do
    • Kasparow's Law
    • AlphaGo
    • IBM Watson
    • Robots
  • Mover
    • Introduction
    • Connecting All 7+ Billion People
    • 😅Self-Driving Vehicles
      • our collection
    • Flying Cars
      • our collection
    • Point to Point
    • Private Space Flight
  • Portal
    • Intrduction
    • Internet of Things
    • 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing
    • 😅What Questions Should We Ask?
  • Lifeforce
    • Introduction
    • Longevity Escape Velocity
    • End of Disease
    • Hallmarks of Aging
    • Cultured Meat
    • Plant Based Meat (Meet?)
    • Fermentation
    • 😅Can We Live Forever? Should We?
  • link
    • Introduction
    • Virtual Reality (VR)
    • 😅Search for Videos of People Experiencing VR
    • Augmented Reality (AR)
    • Mixed Reality (MR)
    • 😅Collect Use Cases
    • Spatial Web
    • Metaverse
  • Power
    • Introduction
    • 😅Decentralize
    • 100% of Energy Needs Met From Solar
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Last updated 1 year ago

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

We are using better tools to make better tools.

  • How did Bill Gates and Microsoft write an operating system without a PC?

  • How did Intel design a microprocessor integrated circuit chip … without a microprocessor?

  1. Introduction

Law of Accelerating Returns

Ray Kurzweil - extending and generalizing Moore's Law

PreviousMoore's LawNextQuantum Computing
🔗 https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_the_accelerating_power_of_technology