> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://101.warmersun.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://101.warmersun.com/introduction/law-of-accelerating-returns.md).

# Law of Accelerating Returns

![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/kurzweil.png)

> An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is **exponential**, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view.\
> So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).

We are **using better tools to make better tools.**

![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/oldpc.png)

* How did Bill Gates and Microsoft write an operating system without a PC?
* How did Intel design a microprocessor integrated circuit chip … without a microprocessor?

[🔗 https://www.ted.com/talks/ray\_kurzweil\_the\_accelerating\_power\_of\_technology](https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_the_accelerating_power_of_technology)