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Progress and Predictions
  • Progress and Predictions
  • Introduction
    • The Story of The Creator of Chess
    • Paper folding
    • Characteristics of Exponential Functions
    • Every Doubling is Greater Than All Previous Doublings Combined
    • Looking at It Backwards
    • We Are Not Wired Like This
      • Example: Diamandis on Corona virus
      • Example: PC Pioneers on the Internet
      • Opinion: Daniel Kahneman: ‘Clearly AI is going to win.'
    • Why Did Some Attempts At Innovation Fail?
    • Moore's Law
    • Law of Accelerating Returns
    • Quantum Computing
    • 😅Collect Pictures of Old Computers
  • Automator
    • Introduction
    • 😅The Kind of Things a Computer Would Never Be Able To Do
    • Kasparow's Law
    • AlphaGo
    • IBM Watson
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    • 😅What Questions Should We Ask?
  • Lifeforce
    • Introduction
    • Longevity Escape Velocity
    • End of Disease
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    • 100% of Energy Needs Met From Solar
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Example: Diamandis on Corona virus

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Last updated 1 year ago

Even someone expert in understanding exponential growth and spotting trends early can get it wrong.

Note how the comparison misses the point of exponential growth

On one of the worst days for Coronavirus in China (February 10, 2020), 108 people died. But on a given day, globally:

  • 26,283 people die of cancer;

  • 49,041 people die of cardiovascular diseases;

  • 4,383 people die of diabetes.

  • Meanwhile, suicide takes on average 2,191 lives….

  • Mosquitoes take the lives of over 2,740 people, and….

  • And HUMANS kill an average of 1,287 fellow people, every single day.

🔗 example of underestimating exponential growth