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Progress and Predictions
  • Progress and Predictions
  • Introduction
    • The Story of The Creator of Chess
    • Paper folding
    • Characteristics of Exponential Functions
    • Every Doubling is Greater Than All Previous Doublings Combined
    • Looking at It Backwards
    • We Are Not Wired Like This
      • Example: Diamandis on Corona virus
      • Example: PC Pioneers on the Internet
      • Opinion: Daniel Kahneman: ‘Clearly AI is going to win.'
    • Why Did Some Attempts At Innovation Fail?
    • Moore's Law
    • Law of Accelerating Returns
    • Quantum Computing
    • 😅Collect Pictures of Old Computers
  • Automator
    • Introduction
    • 😅The Kind of Things a Computer Would Never Be Able To Do
    • Kasparow's Law
    • AlphaGo
    • IBM Watson
    • Robots
  • Mover
    • Introduction
    • Connecting All 7+ Billion People
    • 😅Self-Driving Vehicles
      • our collection
    • Flying Cars
      • our collection
    • Point to Point
    • Private Space Flight
  • Portal
    • Intrduction
    • Internet of Things
    • 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing
    • 😅What Questions Should We Ask?
  • Lifeforce
    • Introduction
    • Longevity Escape Velocity
    • End of Disease
    • Hallmarks of Aging
    • Cultured Meat
    • Plant Based Meat (Meet?)
    • Fermentation
    • 😅Can We Live Forever? Should We?
  • link
    • Introduction
    • Virtual Reality (VR)
    • 😅Search for Videos of People Experiencing VR
    • Augmented Reality (AR)
    • Mixed Reality (MR)
    • 😅Collect Use Cases
    • Spatial Web
    • Metaverse
  • Power
    • Introduction
    • 😅Decentralize
    • 100% of Energy Needs Met From Solar
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  1. Introduction

Moore's Law

PreviousWhy Did Some Attempts At Innovation Fail?NextLaw of Accelerating Returns

Last updated 1 year ago

![Gordon Earle Moore (born January 3, 1929) is an American businessman, engineer, and the co-founder and chairman emeritus of Intel Corporation.](https://s3.amazonaws.com/img.courses.warmersun.com/progressandpredictions/gordon moore.png)

In 1965 Gordon Moore posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade.

Moore's Law is exponential

🔗 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor

Ray Kurzweil extended it by looking back historically

and predicted it will continue, going forward

Kurzweil's predictions were made decades ago so by now he has an excellent track record.

Kurzweil also extended Moore's Law in scope: it's not just about computers but abut every technology that becomes "information enabled".

Some Charts of Technological Change

🔗 Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputers

🔗 Computation used to train notable artificial intelligence systems

🔗 Historical cost of computer memory and storage

extending Moorle's Law in time and scope